8
Another Mystery
10yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 8 · OR 96
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 10-10 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 27/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 16/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |