5
Baytown Parfait
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 92
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 24/12/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |