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3

Jailhouse Justice

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 95

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 04/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m Gd 119 · below its mark04/01/2026 · OR 98 par4/01C8OR 98C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 18/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 97 · 1m Gd 119 · below its mark18/01/2026 · OR 97 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 95 par15/02C8OR 95C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 99 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 99 parC7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 97 · 1m Gd 119 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 97 par25/06C7OR 97C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 102 parC7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark05/08/2026 · OR 102 par5/08C7OR 102C7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 101 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 97 · 1m Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 97 par16/09C5OR 97projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-1th+2
2026-09-01Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-08-05Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-07-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd0th+2
2026-06-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-06-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/016/065/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength76%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/01/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
18/01/20267th20/10%0%0.00
15/02/20265th15/261%56%-0.05
06/06/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
25/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
04/07/20262nd15/890%88%-0.03
05/08/20262nd11/486%91%+0.05
01/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
16/09/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04