2
Don't Look Back
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 82
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength22%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 08/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 24/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |