Inflammabelle
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 66
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-01-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 17/12/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 07/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 24/09/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |