Momentario
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 71
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 29% | -0.61 |
| 24/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |