11
Lucerra
2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 11 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |