IvyArcIvyArc
8

Conference Calling

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 8 · OR 86

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 75 · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/04/2025 · OR 75 par23/04C6OR 75C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 19/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2025 · OR 82 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/06/2025 · OR 83 par10/06C5OR 83C0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 1m Fm 120C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 115 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 89 par8/08C8OR 89C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 85 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 78 par4/07C8OR 78C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 80 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 19/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 79 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 79 par19/08C5OR 79projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th2nd+3
2026-07-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-07-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2026-06-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th6th+3
2025-08-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2025-07-05Horseshoe Indianapolis?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/045/074/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
19/05/20254th9/276%67%-0.10
10/06/20252nd4/179%83%+0.04
05/07/202512th11/271%0%-0.71
08/08/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
02/06/20269th5/174%0%-0.74
04/07/20265th9/276%43%-0.33
15/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
19/08/20265th11/1094%56%-0.39