Leo Springs
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 94
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 12/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/04/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |