IvyArcIvyArc
9

Rigoberto

5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 90

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

45%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 88 par14/08C5OR 88C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 88 · 1m110y Yie 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 85 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 85 par6/10C5OR 85C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m110y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 93 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 91 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 91 par22/06C5OR 91C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 94 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 19/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 91 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 91 par19/08C5OR 91C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 90 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 90 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark23/09/2026 · OR 90 par23/09C8OR 90projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-09-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-08-19Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th4th+3
2026-07-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd0th+3
2026-06-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd0th+3
2025-10-23Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0823/1019/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength30%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
16/09/20253rd9/276%71%-0.05
06/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
23/10/20257th4/179%14%-0.65
22/06/20263rd3/184%60%-0.24
28/07/20263rd2/189%67%-0.23
19/08/20267th9/153%33%-0.19
15/09/20262nd7/491%80%-0.11
23/09/20263rd5/174%33%-0.40