7
A Flare For Politics
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Sterlie Bertram Memorial Stakes · 1f 180y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA71 | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA72 | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA67 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-05-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 52/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +8.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 22/04/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 14/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |