11
Ap Jessies Cartel
3yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 61
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Sterlie Bertram Memorial Stakes · 1f 180y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA61 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA57 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA54 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/07/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 04/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 28/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |