Cowgirl Beach

3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 10 · OR 78

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Sterlie Bertram Memorial Stakes · 1f 180y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▲2

Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: -1.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-14	Horseshoe Indianapolis	BHA76	6th	10th	−3	1.0
2026-08-24	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	2nd	3rd	−1	7.4
2026-08-04	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	5th	−1	5.4
2026-06-30	Horseshoe Indianapolis	BHA73	5th	8th	−3	1.6
2025-10-25	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2025-06-26	Horseshoe Indianapolis	BHA76	1st	5th	−3	5.3

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 53/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength33%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/05/2025	2nd	9/4	88%	89%	+0.01
26/06/2025	1st	5/2	87%	100%	+0.13
25/10/2025	4th	9/2	76%	67%	-0.10
30/06/2026	5th	14/1	26%	33%	+0.07
04/08/2026	4th	20/1	0%	67%	+0.67
24/08/2026	2nd	9/4	88%	86%	-0.02
14/09/2026	6th	25/1	0%	29%	+0.29