1
Victory Beach
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 74
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Sterlie Bertram Memorial Stakes · 1f 180y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA71 | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA74 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA72 | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 25/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 21/04/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 22% | -0.63 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |