4
Calycanthus
6yo Horse · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 91
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength67%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |