6
Enlighten
5yo Horse · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 95
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 16/02/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 38% | -0.55 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |