Fountain Run

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 94

Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 1m

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength45%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Churchill Downs	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-08-07	Ellis Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-06-18	Churchill Downs	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-05-14	Churchill Downs	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-04-11	Keeneland	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-03-07	Oaklawn Park	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▼

Strength68%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/11/2025	1st	14/1	26%	100%	+0.74
28/12/2025	6th	40/1	0%	17%	+0.17
22/02/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
07/03/2026	7th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
11/04/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	83%	+0.04
14/05/2026	4th	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
18/06/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29
07/08/2026	4th	11/4	86%	40%	-0.46
12/09/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12