1
Military Road
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 100
Keeneland · Race 1 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 26/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |