11
Army Medic
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 11 · OR 64
Keeneland · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 12-12 · tight 88/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 12/07/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 17% | -0.75 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |