10
Queen Mckinzie
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 71
Keeneland · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength22%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 25/01/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 21/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |