12
Red Rainbow
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 12 · OR 74
Keeneland · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
48%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 64/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength82%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 22/02/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |