IvyArcIvyArc
3

Snow Bunny

3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 68

Keeneland · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

39%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS29/04C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m110y Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 82 par25/05C6OR 82projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th4th+3
2026-04-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0425/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 6-6 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength52%

Delivery trend -27.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20262nd9/153%80%+0.27
25/05/20267th20/10%0%0.00