7
Valiant War Girl
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 53
Keeneland · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 8.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 55/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +25.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 16/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |