IvyArcIvyArc
3

Coaster

4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 94

Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Churchill Downs 19/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 88 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 88 par19/09C5OR 88C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 90 parC5 @ Remington Park 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 94 · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 94 par31/10C5OR 94C5 @ Oaklawn Park 28/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 90 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 90 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 08/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 95 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/02/2026 · OR 95 par8/02C5OR 95C5 @ Oaklawn Park 27/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 94 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 94 · 6f 122 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 94 par30/04C6OR 94C6 @ Saratoga 16/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 90 · 6f 126 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 13/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 93 · 7f 121 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 93 par13/09C6OR 93projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-08-16Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-04-30Oaklawn Park?1st1st0
2026-02-27Oaklawn Park?2nd1st+1
2026-02-08Oaklawn Park?8th7th+1
2025-12-28Oaklawn Park?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0928/1230/0413/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20255th16/116%50%+0.34
06/10/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
31/10/20252nd9/488%86%-0.02
28/12/20252nd25/10%88%+0.88
08/02/20268th9/276%30%-0.46
27/02/20262nd7/491%86%-0.05
30/04/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
16/08/20264th13/266%25%-0.41
13/09/20263rd14/126%60%+0.34