Justinqueso
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 99
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |