4

Silent Law

4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 98

Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼3
Strength98%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: +3.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Santa Anita 25/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 112 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2024 · OR 112 par25/10C5OR 112C5 @ Del Mar 16/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 105 · 7f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/11/2024 · OR 105 parC1 @ Santa Anita 05/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 102 · 7f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/01/2025 · OR 102 par5/01C1OR 102C0 @ Santa Anita 05/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2025 · OR 96 parC2 @ Del Mar 20/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 97 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/07/2025 · OR 97 par20/07C2OR 97C1 @ Santa Anita 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 98 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 98 parC0 @ Santa Anita 28/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 101 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 101 par28/12C?OR 101C6 @ Churchill Downs 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 101 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 101 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 101 · 7f 121 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 101 par13/09C6OR 101projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Churchill Downs?6th6th0
2026-06-19Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2025-12-28Santa Anita?7th1st+5
2025-10-04Santa Anita?2nd-4th+5
2025-07-20Del Mar?8th4th+4
2025-04-05Santa Anita?2nd-4th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/105/0428/1213/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20241st4/797%100%+0.03
16/11/20242nd8/1597%67%-0.31
05/01/20253rd4/179%71%-0.08
05/04/20252nd10/147%75%+0.28
20/07/20258th20/10%13%+0.13
04/10/20252nd3/184%75%-0.09
28/12/20257th12/137%33%-0.04
19/06/20264th10/382%40%-0.42
13/09/20266th9/488%0%-0.88