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2

Spring Dancer

4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 96

Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 24/02/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark24/02/2025 · OR 89 par24/02C6OR 89C6 @ Oaklawn Park 02/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 93 · 6f Slo 120 · below its mark02/05/2025 · OR 93 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 13/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 89 · 5f Fm 122 · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 89 par13/11C6OR 89C5 @ Oaklawn Park 14/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 91 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 91 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 02/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 87 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 87 par2/01C5OR 87C6 @ Oaklawn Park 22/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark22/02/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 90 par26/04C5OR 90C6 @ Churchill Downs 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 100 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 100 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 13/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 100 · 7f 121 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 100 par13/09C6OR 100projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-06-03Churchill Downs?5th5th0
2026-04-26Oaklawn Park?1st0th+1
2026-02-22Oaklawn Park?1st1st0
2026-01-02Oaklawn Park?1st0th+1
2025-12-14Oaklawn Park?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0214/1226/0413/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/02/20255th3/184%64%-0.21
02/05/20254th2/189%57%-0.32
13/11/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
14/12/20257th20/10%40%+0.40
02/01/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
22/02/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
26/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
03/06/20265th25/10%43%+0.43
13/09/20264th12/137%40%+0.03