Strong State
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 96
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 14/09/2024 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 54% | -0.28 |
| 04/06/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |