Velvet Devil
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 95
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Turfway Park | BHA107 | 7th | 13th | −5 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 15/02/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 24/04/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 70% | -0.20 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 11/01/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |