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2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 89

Keeneland · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f Fas 11922/08C6
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Ellis Park?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 50/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08