1
Spectacular Sam
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 89
Keeneland · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 3-4 · tight 73/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength68%
Delivery trend -14.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |