Countthetrue
2yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 3 · OR 79
Keeneland · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 29/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |