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4

Lexi's Charm

2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 90

Keeneland · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS17/07C6C5 @ Saratoga 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 90 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 90 par26/08C5OR 90projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Saratoga?4th2nd+2
2026-07-17Saratoga?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
26/08/20264th12/137%57%+0.20