Life's Pageant

2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 74

Keeneland · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

10%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARK

Move▼1

Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Colonial Downs	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2026-08-08	Colonial Downs	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-07-25	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 27/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength9%

Delivery trend -12.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/07/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	60%	+0.07
08/08/2026	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53
07/09/2026	4th	6/1	68%	50%	-0.18