7
Sweet Mary
2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 7 · OR 68
Keeneland · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | BHA73 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 29/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 09/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |