IvyArcIvyArc
8

Valkyrie

2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 8 · OR 76

Keeneland · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

19%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 4f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS26/04C6C5 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 94 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 94 par28/06C5OR 94C5 @ Churchill Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 77 · 6f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 77 par10/09C5OR 77projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Churchill Downs?2nd0th+2
2026-06-28Churchill Downs?4th2nd+2
2026-04-26Churchill Downs?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0428/0610/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 27/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -8.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
28/06/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
10/09/20262nd13/266%75%+0.09