Amarth
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 94
Keeneland · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 16/05/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 22/06/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 25% | -0.67 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |