Clairita
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 98
Keeneland · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 20/09/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |