Rando
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 92
Keeneland · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |