5
Strong Destiny
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 97
Keeneland · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 29/06/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 10/08/2025 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 36% | -0.50 |
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 27/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 24/04/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 15/05/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |