Union Mist
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 93
Keeneland · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |