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10

Come To Mama

5yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 10 · OR 92

Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Delaware Park 30/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 92 · 5f Fm 121 · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 92 par30/08C6OR 92C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 30/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 90 parC8 @ Laurel Park 24/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 89 par24/04C8OR 89C8 @ Laurel Park 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 87 parC8 @ Laurel Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 88 par13/06C8OR 88C7 @ Colonial Downs 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 122 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 84 parC7 @ Colonial Downs 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 5f110y Fm 124 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 84 par26/07C7OR 84C5 @ Colonial Downs 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 87 parC5 @ Laurel Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 90 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 90 par12/09C5OR 90projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Laurel Park?3rd2nd+1
2026-08-27Colonial Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-07-26Colonial Downs?2nd4th−2
2026-07-06Colonial Downs?1st3rd−2
2026-06-13Laurel Park?7th10th−3
2026-05-08Laurel Park?1st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/088/0526/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 35/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength66%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/08/20255th20/10%50%+0.50
30/09/20254th10/147%50%+0.03
24/04/20268th5/174%22%-0.51
08/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
13/06/20267th10/147%0%-0.47
06/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
26/07/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
27/08/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
12/09/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71