6
Fancy Caber Neigh
6yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 95
Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 2-13 · tight 35/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2023 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 13/09/2023 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 21/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 07/02/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 29/05/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |