IvyArcIvyArc
4

Insightful Miss

6yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 95

Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Oaklawn Park 28/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 92 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark28/03/2025 · OR 92 par28/03C8OR 92C5 @ Oaklawn Park 19/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark19/04/2025 · OR 94 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 02/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 91 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark02/05/2025 · OR 91 par2/05C6OR 91C8 @ Oaklawn Park 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 89 · 6f 121 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 87 · 6f Slo 121 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 87 par4/04C8OR 87C6 @ Oaklawn Park 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 87 · 6f 122 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 87 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 94 · 6f110y 118 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 94 par13/06C8OR 94C6 @ Ellis Park 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 89 parC6 @ Ellis Park 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 89 par15/08C6OR 89projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Ellis Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-07-18Ellis Park?1st2nd−1
2026-06-13Churchill Downs?2nd5th−3
2026-04-30Oaklawn Park?3rd4th−1
2026-04-04Oaklawn Park?4th7th−3
2026-03-13Oaklawn Park?2nd5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0313/0313/0615/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength59%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
19/04/20258th10/147%22%-0.25
02/05/20256th9/153%38%-0.15
13/03/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
04/04/20264th4/179%57%-0.22
30/04/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71
13/06/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
18/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
15/08/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03