12
Lady Iva
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 12 · OR 83
Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 4-13 · tight 48/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength1%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 6/5 | 94% | 29% | -0.65 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |