7
Lucy Mcgee
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 94
Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 3-13 · tight 43/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 25/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 10/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 05/09/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |