IvyArcIvyArc
8

Shezthefactor

5yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 8 · OR 85

Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#12

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 26/06/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 74 · 5f Fas 118 · beat its mark26/06/2024 · OR 74 par26/06C6OR 74C6 @ Ellis Park 15/07/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 74 · 5f110y Fm 119 · beat its mark15/07/2024 · OR 74 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 01/09/2024 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 74 · 7f Fm 121 · beat its mark01/09/2024 · OR 74 par1/09C6OR 74C9 @ Fair Grounds 14/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m Fm 125 · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 80 parC6 @ Hawthorne 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 5f110y Fas 125 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 82 par3/05C6OR 82C6 @ Thistledown 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 80 · 6f 123 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 80 parC5 @ Hawthorne 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 76 · 1m 123 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 76 par11/06C5OR 76C5 @ Hawthorne 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 5f Fas 125 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 75 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 83 · 6f110y 121 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 83 par30/08C6OR 83projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Kentucky Downs?8th9th−1
2026-06-25Hawthorne?2nd2nd0
2026-06-11Hawthorne?3rd3rd0
2026-05-26Thistledown?1st2nd−1
2026-05-03Hawthorne?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-14Fair Grounds?4th8th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0614/0311/0630/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 12-13 · tight 87/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/06/20243rd16/116%78%+0.62
15/07/20244th12/137%67%+0.30
01/09/20242nd12/137%91%+0.54
14/03/20264th6/168%67%-0.02
03/05/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
26/05/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
11/06/20263rd2/189%50%-0.39
25/06/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09
30/08/20268th20/10%22%+0.22