5
Social Belle
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 94
Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2024-12-28 | Fair Grounds | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 18% | -0.45 |
| 22/03/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |