2
Something Stronger
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 97
Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Fair Grounds | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 25/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 15/05/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 10/01/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 11% | -0.73 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |