Clonmacnoise

2yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 77

Keeneland · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

85%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-09	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-07-04	Ellis Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-06-10	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 66/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +24.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/06/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	60%	-0.11
04/07/2026	5th	13/2	66%	43%	-0.23
09/08/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	75%	+0.38